Thursday, August 10, 2006

Are we past peak ?

Average Daily oil production

Year/ production( in million bpd )
--------------------------

2002/ 77
2003/ 79.6
2004/ 83
2005/ 84.34 ( including the dip during Sep-Oct 05, due to hurricanes )
2005/ 84.5 ( 10 months excluding Sep-Oct for hurricanes )
2006/ 84.5 ( First 5 months only )

Highest ever monthly average was 85.05 in December 2005.

If oil is plentyful and price is record high, why isn't the production increasing ?

All the data mentioned so far is from: EIA website ( http://www.eia.doe.gov )

Also some interesting decline rates according to BP statistical survey. These declines are from 2004 to 2005

USA = 5.5%
Canada = 1.3% ( despite oil sands )
Mexico = 1%
Norway = 7.5%
UK = 11%
Iraq = 9.5%

Most of the significant growth in production came from Former Soviet Union Africa and Middle East. It will be interesting to see this years numbers for Saudi Arabia ( declining production from April 2006 )Kuwait ( with the peaking of Burgan ) and Mexico ( peaking of Cantarell ).